08 November 2009

Thought of the Day - Lottery Thought Experiment

[I wrote most of this around the end of June, when there was a $100m AUD jackpot on the lottery. After the draw I forgot to finish it, but in retrospect there are some interesting thoughts in here that are worth posting.]

I'm normally against gambling, on the principle that in the long run the house always wins. I don't deny that some people are lucky and beat the house, just that if it was likely to happen, bookies wouldn't stay in business long. Based on the above, I don't tend to gamble or play the lottery on a regular basis. But every so often, when there is an obscenely large jackpot I'll throw a couple of quid on the lottery. Normally I am left slightly disappointed, it is hard not to wonder 'what if I won?' before the draw. This time however I decided to put my occasional flutter to good use, win or lose.

Recently I have been having a hard time working out what on earth I want to do with my life. I've been thinking about it since I started uni and have yet to come to any good conclusions. There is a classic thought experiment that is supposed to help in this situation: What would you do if money was no object, if you could do whatever you wanted to do, if for example if you won the lottery? It is a little difficult to really get into that frame of mind, money will always matter, there are always too many options. The only time you ever come close to that mindset is buying a lottery ticket, anything is possible, if unlikely.

I'm sure no-one — other than maybe Bill Gates — thinks they would live their life the same if they won the lottery. I mean who fantasises about watching more bad TV, working a job they hate and being dissatisfied with life? Money isn't everything but having a relatively unlimited supply would change your perspective.


Anyway, my thought experiment was this: To indulge my 'What if I won?' thoughts and try to determine from those thoughts, what I really want to do. Rather than focusing on the specifics of having a vast amount of money, I directed my attention to the recurring themes of what I would actually do. I wouldn't say it was a complete success, but there were some interesting trends:

1. Read More - The one recurring thought in almost all of the possibilities was that I wanted to spend more time reading. Literally my first thought was, that if I won the lottery, I would take a pile of books to a cabin in the hills and spend a lot of time reading and thinking. In fact almost all of my fantasies involved reading in some way; from just reading, to building a huge library, to being able to have a 'reading week' every year like Bill Gates. It really seemed to be at the core of what I want to do. The irony being that at the moment I have lots of time to read, instead I sleep and watch bad TV.
With this in mind, I need to strive for a greater level of erudition.

2. Improve Companies - If I did win the lottery, I would still work, if only because it would drive me crazy if I didn't. The one thing I have loved in every job I have ever had, is having an idea so good it feels like an epiphany. Different ideas, thoughts and inspiration, just seem to join up and lead to an answer. They have been rare moments in the jobs I have had so far, but they are what keep me going. Most often these serendipitous ideas are for ways to improve a business, not just in an incremental way, but in a revolutionary way.
With this in mind, I need to focus on jobs with the opportunity to improve businesses.

3. Go To Business School - One of the stranger themes was that I would go to business school. Sure part of it would be because having won a lot of money, you would somehow end up involved in business. But I think the underlying reason is that, if money was no object it would be something interesting to do.
With this in mind I need to consider doing an MBA even if I have no interest in being a manager.

4. Live In The Mountains - Almost all of the location specific thoughts I had involved mountains, generally Alp/Rockies type peaks, but really any relief would do. I don't think I had a single thought of lounging on a beach on a tropical island or the sea. In all honesty, places that are too flat kinda freak me out.
With this in mind, I need to try to live (or at least holiday) in the mountains as much as possible.

5. Learn How To Survive If The Shit Hits The Fan - I think around that time I had been reading too many disaster books (The Stand, Emergency etc), so this was on my mind. However it is probably a good idea to do some preparation for the worst.
With this in mind, I need to ... do something ;-)

6. Travel To See The People I Like To Spend Time With -
IM's and e-mail are fine when nothing else is on offer, but seeing people I enjoy spending time with should be the catalyst for travel that I have thusfar been lacking.
With this in mind, I need to make more of an effort to travel to see the people I enjoy spending time with.


There were also some trends that were conspicuous in their absence:
1. Buy a big house, fancy car, jewellery etc.
2. Live a playboy life with a bevy of beautiful women.
3. Give lots of money to charity.

The first two merely confirm that, as I suspected, most of the conventional trappings of money don't appeal to me. I don't feel significantly better-off now, than I did when I was earning half as much in my first job after graduating from university. While chasing money for the sake of it seemed foolish before. It is now more clear, that I am not interested in 'more money' as a goal.


That last one makes me seem like kind of a bad guy. Who could be so selfish, that on having the stroke of luck to win a vast sum of money, wouldn't help out charities. I think this stems from the fact that I don't trust them to use it well. I'm not saying charities deliberately squander money. I just question whether it is used most effectively in absolute terms, or if it is used in a subjective way to make donors feel better. If I was going to give money away, I would want to make sure it was going to have the greatest benefit. Weirdly one of my fantasies involved giving away the winning ticket to an acquaintance (un-named) and disappearing.


It was a nice thought experiment, but in reality it turns out on this occasion the house did win. I only matched 7 numbers across 6 lines. But I think that if I started living life as if I had won the lottery, I would be much happier.