Thought of the Day - Lottery Thought Experiment

[I wrote most of this around the end of June, when there was a $100m AUD jackpot on the lottery. After the draw I forgot to finish it, but in retrospect there are some interesting thoughts in here that are worth posting.]

I'm normally against gambling, on the principle that in the long run the house always wins. I don't deny that some people are lucky and beat the house, just that if it was likely to happen, bookies wouldn't stay in business long. Based on the above, I don't tend to gamble or play the lottery on a regular basis. But every so often, when there is an obscenely large jackpot I'll throw a couple of quid on the lottery. Normally I am left slightly disappointed, it is hard not to wonder 'what if I won?' before the draw. This time however I decided to put my occasional flutter to good use, win or lose.

Recently I have been having a hard time working out what on earth I want to do with my life. I've been thinking about it since I started uni and have yet to come to any good conclusions. There is a classic thought experiment that is supposed to help in this situation: What would you do if money was no object, if you could do whatever you wanted to do, if for example if you won the lottery? It is a little difficult to really get into that frame of mind, money will always matter, there are always too many options. The only time you ever come close to that mindset is buying a lottery ticket, anything is possible, if unlikely.

I'm sure no-one — other than maybe Bill Gates — thinks they would live their life the same if they won the lottery. I mean who fantasises about watching more bad TV, working a job they hate and being dissatisfied with life? Money isn't everything but having a relatively unlimited supply would change your perspective.


Anyway, my thought experiment was this: To indulge my 'What if I won?' thoughts and try to determine from those thoughts, what I really want to do. Rather than focusing on the specifics of having a vast amount of money, I directed my attention to the recurring themes of what I would actually do. I wouldn't say it was a complete success, but there were some interesting trends:

1. Read More - The one recurring thought in almost all of the possibilities was that I wanted to spend more time reading. Literally my first thought was, that if I won the lottery, I would take a pile of books to a cabin in the hills and spend a lot of time reading and thinking. In fact almost all of my fantasies involved reading in some way; from just reading, to building a huge library, to being able to have a 'reading week' every year like Bill Gates. It really seemed to be at the core of what I want to do. The irony being that at the moment I have lots of time to read, instead I sleep and watch bad TV.
With this in mind, I need to strive for a greater level of erudition.

2. Improve Companies - If I did win the lottery, I would still work, if only because it would drive me crazy if I didn't. The one thing I have loved in every job I have ever had, is having an idea so good it feels like an epiphany. Different ideas, thoughts and inspiration, just seem to join up and lead to an answer. They have been rare moments in the jobs I have had so far, but they are what keep me going. Most often these serendipitous ideas are for ways to improve a business, not just in an incremental way, but in a revolutionary way.
With this in mind, I need to focus on jobs with the opportunity to improve businesses.

3. Go To Business School - One of the stranger themes was that I would go to business school. Sure part of it would be because having won a lot of money, you would somehow end up involved in business. But I think the underlying reason is that, if money was no object it would be something interesting to do.
With this in mind I need to consider doing an MBA even if I have no interest in being a manager.

4. Live In The Mountains - Almost all of the location specific thoughts I had involved mountains, generally Alp/Rockies type peaks, but really any relief would do. I don't think I had a single thought of lounging on a beach on a tropical island or the sea. In all honesty, places that are too flat kinda freak me out.

With this in mind, I need to try to live (or at least holiday) in the mountains as much as possible.

5. Learn How To Survive If The Shit Hits The Fan - I think around that time I had been reading too many disaster books (The Stand, Emergency etc), so this was on my mind. However it is probably a good idea to do some preparation for the worst.

With this in mind, I need to ... do something ;-)

6. Travel To See The People I Like To Spend Time With - IM's and e-mail are fine when nothing else is on offer, but seeing people I enjoy spending time with should be the catalyst for travel that I have thusfar been lacking.
With this in mind, I need to make more of an effort to travel to see the people I enjoy spending time with.


There were also some trends that were conspicuous in their absence:
1. Buy a big house, fancy car, jewellery etc.
2. Live a playboy life with a bevy of beautiful women.
3. Give lots of money to charity.

The first two merely confirm that, as I suspected, most of the conventional trappings of money don't appeal to me. I don't feel significantly better-off now, than I did when I was earning half as much in my first job after graduating from university. While chasing money for the sake of it seemed foolish before. It is now more clear, that I am not interested in 'more money' as a goal.

That last one makes me seem like kind of a bad guy. Who could be so selfish, that on having the stroke of luck to win a vast sum of money, wouldn't help out charities. I think this stems from the fact that I don't trust them to use it well. I'm not saying charities deliberately squander money. I just question whether it is used most effectively in absolute terms, or if it is used in a subjective way to make donors feel better. If I was going to give money away, I would want to make sure it was going to have the greatest benefit. Weirdly one of my fantasies involved giving away the winning ticket to an acquaintance (un-named) and disappearing.


It was a nice thought experiment, but in reality it turns out on this occasion the house did win. I only matched 7 numbers across 6 lines. But I think that if I started living life as if I had won the lottery, I would be much happier.

Thought of the Day - Brilliant or Crazy?

Yesterday I finally solved my backup quandary, I got 6 free months of the premium version of Dropbox to backup 50Gb of data online. I received this for participating in Tim Ferriss's 'Tweet to Beat' campaign along with 33,000 other people. Running the numbers I realised that even if only 50% of the other participants take up this offer, Dropbox will loose out almost $1 million in revenue over the next 6 months. My initial reaction was; 'they're crazy' but it then dawned on me that they might actually be brilliant instead, taking the 'Freemium' model to the extreme.

Anyone who has used web applications should have experienced the 'freemium' model. There is a limited free version of the WebApp that is available, but as you use it more and more, there are then paid levels to allow you greater functionality. The theory being that you can get used to the service, input a heap of data, then you are tied in and likely to pay because of the amount of time you have invested. A more common model is the '30-Day Free Trial' which is similar, but you have 30 days of free use before you have to start paying.

These models are an excellent idea for both the customer and the seller. The customer gets to decide if the product is worth paying for and the seller can reach a wider audience because people like to 'try before you buy'. The downside is that increasingly customers are wise to tactic and may try to resist it. The seller hopes that in the 30-Days or free period, the customer uses the product so much that they are effectively locked in to paying for it by the end. I suspect more and more, that cynical customers are deliberately not using the full potential of the services to avoid this lock-in. I know my first reaction to a free trial or freemium service are to avoid using it too much for precisely this reason.

So how does this relate to Dropbox? Well i have been considering using an online backup system for a while now and have seen various options ranging from free to really expensive, however i was having a hard time deciding between them. There was no easy way to compare features, prices, security and usability, which resulted in decision paralysis; too many options, so i won't pick any of them. Dropbox is offered on a freemium model.There is a free version where you can store up to 2Gb of data and a premium version for $9.99 per month with 50Gb of storage. Unfortunately i suspect this model doesn't work very well in this situation. The full version is really designed for backing up all (or most) of your documents, which is a very different market from the free version, which is so small it is really just for temporary online storage of documents. Due to the fact they are targeted at different markets, I suspect the conversion rate from free to premium is fairly low, this is further exacerbated by the fact that 2Gb isn't much of a lock-in. The alternative would be to offer a 30-Day trial of the premium version, but as i mentioned above, people are wise to that tactic. Few people would bother uploading 50Gb of data to a service if they might not like it or want to move.

On the other hand, how about offering 6 months free? Well that's a different story, 6 months is long enough that it doesn't feel like a lock-in and well even if it is, you're getting $60 of service for free! In reality the lock-in is very high, even higher than the other models above. Once you've setup a system for backups, used it for 6 months and are familiar with the system, there is very little chance you will move when the free period ends. The customer wins; they get some 'free' service and the company wins because they have excellent differentiation in the market and superb retention after the free period ends.

So why doesn't everyone do it? Firstly the company will still have to pay for the storage space, the bandwidth and other overheads that are going to be there. Furthermore they have deferred a large portion of their income for 6 months which is a bit of a cash flow no-no. Also if you offered it to everyone, 6 months is long enough that unscrupulous people would find it worth exploiting. Effectively you are betting the farm that having extremely high retention will benefit the business in the long run.

So is this deal genius or madness? Only time will tell, though after thinking about it i am now a little worried that cashflow might put the company (and all my data) under ...

Thought of the Day - Right Brained Computing

First it was widley belived that machines couldn't replace people at making things (pottery, textiles etc), then the industrial revolution happened. While the machines would never be quite as good at making some things (hand-crafted is still seen as a good thing) they do most of the making in the world today.

More recently it was thought that machines couldn't replace people doing knowledge based tasks that required left brain thinking and again they have been proved wrong again. If a computer can win at chess, properly programed it can probably replace a person doing anthing relying on procedure, decisions and memory. This is still progressing and there is still a gap where people are required.


Is the way forward to leap-frog people working on automating the left brained activites and start trying to automate more right brained work?

I suppose this is where researchers in artificial intelligence are going but is there a simpler approach? Does a computer have to be able to think and be self-aware to create? If a million monkey's at a million type writers will eventually come up with the works of shakespeare and a computer can do the same work in a considerably shorter period of time, is it not just a matter of selecting the best version. As the old saying goes; "ideas are like a**holes, everyone has one", surely this means that creativity is simply selecting the good ideas from the bad.

Thought of the Day - Joined Up Writing

Do you remember early in school, you mechanically printed out line after line of individual letters to learn the shapes? Then one magical day your teacher let you join them up to form adult writing? Well when i was 14, i decided that my joined up writing was so illegible, that to have a chance of passing exams, i would have to start printing again. Not just printing, but printing in block capitals and that is the way i have written for the latter half of my life.

In fairness it has served me well, i learned to print quickly enough to get down the salient points in an exam in the requisite time. The printing was legible enough that i'm fairly sure that the examiner understood what i was getting at and i passed the large majority of exams. More recently due to the IT revolution, about the only thing of consequence that i have had to handwrite since university exams was an application to MI5 and even then i printed in block caps (which i'm sure annoyed them no end - graphology be damned!).

It shouldn't come as a surprise to me then, that i am now no longer capable of cursive script. Sure i can join up block capital letters pretty well and jot out individual lower case letters but i can't write like i should be able to. I can't avoid starting every letter with an full-size capital; Imagine Every Word In A Sentence Written Like This, only worse. Even more disturbingly i can't write lower case letters in a consistent fashion at all, i can scroll out a couple but as soon as i lose concentration i slip back into block caps.

I suppose there are two questions; in this increasingly digital world, should i care? and given that my cursive script was so bad back in the day, could i even write legibly in cursive with practice?

Thought of the Day - Christmas Business Book Reviews

Well i succeeded in my goal of reading 5 books during my 11 day Christmas holiday, 6 in fact, if you count one i read just for fun. So i thought i would do a quick roundup of what i read, some i have already posted 'book notes' on and some will require a second reading before i can do that. So without further ado:

Plugged In by Tamara Erickson [2008]
A book on how to find the right job and succeed in work as part of Generation Y (born 1980 - 2000).
My Thoughts: An interesting book with some very good observations and useful generalisations. Though it did lack some of the more specific strategies i was hoping it would provide. It would be a great book to read if you were leaving college and looking for a job. I found it interesting that in most respects i am Generation Y but i have some Generation X tendencies.
*** 3 out of 5

Personal Development For Smart People by Steve Pavlina [2008]
A guide on personal development using a logical framework.
My Thoughts: I started reading Steve's blog 3 years ago on a recommendation from a friend. I was initially drawn in by the inspirational articles, which unlike most other personal development sites had a slant towards the rational and geeky. Unfortunately as he has developed over the years, he has moved towards a more new-age viewpoint and this book is heavily influenced by that direction. Don't get me wrong there were some interesting ideas in it, however i had read most of them in his blog prior to the book.
** 2 out of 5

The Back Of The Napkin by Dan Roam [2008]
A book on the power of using simple drawings and visual communication.
My Thoughts: An interesting book, particularly if you have never done; art, graphic communication, presentation skills or six sigma training. Unfortunately i have done all of the above, which means most of the book was a refresher course. I have always been a very visual person and this reinforced my view that if something needs explained a picture is a good way to do it. Where i did find it particularly useful was in explaining why visual communication is powerful and providing a framework for visual problem solving.
**** 4 out of 5

Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell [2008]
A book looking into difference between the myths of success and actual causes of people who are exceptionally successful.
My Thoughts: As with Malcolm Gladwell's previous books (The Tipping Point and Blink) Outliers is a very compelling and easy read. Unlike its predecessors, it has some interesting social commentary highlighting ways that the current system can be improved for the betterment of society. It is also one of those books that i suspect may have a profound bearing on how i live my life going forwards.
***** 5 out of 5

Pro Blogger by Darren Rowse and Chris Garrett [2008]
A book on how to successfully make a living from blogging.
My Thoughts: An interesting read, though i didn't really learn anything that i didn't already know. It would be much more useful for non-technical individuals that have read, but never written, a blog. A lot of the advice is common sense, the remainder is available online and can be found relatively easily. Where the book does succeed is putting structure to that advice, which can be used a checklist if you plan to start a blog with aspirations of making money from it.
*** 3 out of 5


Something i hadn't noticed until i wrote this down is that all of the books i read were published in 2008. Random given that i didn't set out to do that and have many unread books that were published earlier.

Book Notes - The Back Of The Napkin

The Back Of The Napkin by Dan Roam [2008]

Summary:
A book promoting the use of pictures and diagrams as a communication medium. It outlines why visual communication is effective and how to make your visual communications more effective. It contains a framework for selecting the most appropriate diagrams for certain situations as well as a framework for problem solving.

Notes:
Page 4: Reminder, develop an 'elevator pitch' for every project or idea.
Page 15: Six Problem Clumps:
1) Who/What
2) How Much/Many
3) When
4) Where
5) How
6) Why
Page 37: Process Of Visual Thinking:
1) Look - Collecting and screening
2) See - Selecting and clumping
3) Imagine - Seeing what isn't there
4) Show - Making it all clear
Page 57: Rules For Better Looking:
1) Collect everything you can
2) Lay it all out where you can look at it (literally lay it out)
3) Establish fundamental coordinates (use; Who/What, How Much/Many, When, Where, Why, How, as axes)
4) Practice visual triage
Page 72: Common Precognitive Visual Attributes:
1) Proximity - close things are related
2) Colour - hints at groupings
3) Size
4) Orientation - perpendicular angles are best
5) Direction - perceived movement (arrows etc)
6) Shape
7) Shading
Page 84: How = Who + How Much/Many + Where + When
Page 94: You can use the 6w's in order to Show as well as See.
Page 107: SQVID Visualisation breakdown:
1) Simple Vs Elaborate
2) Quality Vs Quantity
3) Vision Vs Execution
4) Individual Attributes Vs Comparison
5) Delta (change) Vs Status Quo
Page 108: You can either progressively go through all of the SQVID steps (idea focusing) or you can work out what balance of each extreme is the most important for the audience (audience focusing).
Page 131: The Three Steps of Showing:
1) Select the right framework
2) Use the framework to create the picture
3) Explain the picture to someone else
Page 134: The links between seeing and showing:
1) Who/What - Picture/Portrait
2) How Much/Many - Chart
3) Where - Map
4) When - Timeline
5) How - Flow Chart
6) Why - Multivari Plot
Page 141: Diagram linking the ways of showing with SQVID.

Quotes:
Page 13: "Any problem can be made clearer with a picture, and any picture can be created with the same set of tools and rules."
Page 133: "For each of the six ways of seeing there is one corresponding way of showing. For each one of these six ways of showing, there is a single visual framework that serves as a starting point."

Thought of the Day - Theory X Vs Theory Y

In management there are two theories of employee motivation; Theory X posits that employees don't like work, will avoid it where possible and must be driven to it. Theory Y on the other hand is based on the assumption that work can be satisfying and employees will be self-motivated to work. While it initially appears that these theories are all to do with employees internal motivation, it has also been suggested that whether a boss manages to Theory X or Theory Y determines how the employees behave. I tend to subscribe to the latter idea, if you manage your employees as if they will do everything in their power to avoid work that is how they will behave. If on the other hand you manage your employees by giving them responsibility and trusting them that is how they will behave.

It is interesting to see how people behave when managers aren't around, while not being able to control for things like; workload, task allocation and clarity of goals, how employees behave in a management vacuum should indicate whether the culture of a company is Theory X or Y. If the employees have a; "while they cat's away" attitude and avoid work you can safely guess that there is a Theory X culture. If on the other hand the employees treat it as; "business as usual" and work as they would if the manager was there you can assume it is a Theory Y workplace.

This is another reason that i think ROWE (Results Only Work Environment) is the way forward. Under that culture it doesn't matter where the manager (or infact the employee) physically is, there is work to be done and it either gets done or it doesn't. People won't come into the office just to show up, they aren't just there to look busy while the manager is there and slack off when he/she isn't. In ROWE on the other hand there are specific tasks that get done, the manager can monitor them in or out of the office, the employee can complete them in or out of the office.

In the end, i think seeing how employees behave when they aren't around is an interesting insight that most managers are unlikely to see. Unless of course they resort to spying, in which case it would be safe to assume they are Theory X.

Thought of the Day - Career In Reverse

I just had an epiphany, my career so far has been in reverse. Not reverse in the normal meaning; going backwards in terms of money or responsibility, but reverse in the progression of job titles.

For most people: Engineering Degree > Mechanical Engineer > Process Improvement Specialist > Leadership Development Program > Project Manager, would be a logical progression of jobs. And yet somehow i have gone in completely the opposite direction. I don't know whether this is a bad thing or a good thing or in fact what it means, it just struck me as an interesting observation.

I suppose my next job either needs to be an internship or back to university ...

Thought of the Day - Complex Decision Making

I just read an article in the 'Boss' supplement from The Australian Financial Review which was a reprint from the Harvard Business Review (June 2006). It concerns something that i have given a fair amount of thought to but never really considered from this angle; how to get a group to decide between many options.

In the past i have largely focused on tools like; the Pugh Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Impact-Effort Matrix and simple voting. While these techniques result in a decision, what i failed to consider is that just because an option is selected doesn't mean that there is broad agreement with the decision. The article focused on the CEO/Leader as a deadlock breaker and the negative aspect that they become a 'dictator by default' and while i suspect that is a frequent occurrence, the problem is equally valid in groups of peers.

The crux of the problem is summed up in this quote; "majority wishes can clash when a group of three or more people attempt to set priorities among three or more items ... different subsets of the group can generate conflicting majorities for all possible alternatives". E.g. Persons 1 and 2 agree on option A but persons 2 and 3 also agree on option C, by selecting option A you satisfy 1 and 2 but C would have been an equally valid choice as you satisfy 2 and 3.

Once you accept that point, it suggests that it is impossible to resolve this conflict. However this assumes that there are only fixed options, the article advises that you carry out the following steps to come to a better solution:
1) Articulate clearly what outcome you are seeking - Classic problem solving, you can't solve a problem until there is a common understanding of what the problem is.
2) Provide a range of options for achieving the outcome - Again classic problem solving, brainstorm as many solutions as possible.
3) Surface preferences early - There is no point wasting time on options that no-one has any interest in, by eliminating them you don't waste time on pointless debate. This step can be done through voting, possibly weighted, or other techniques.
4) State each option's pros and cons - See the good and bad on both sides, in the article it is recommended for someone to present the pros and another person to present the cons, one may have to play devils advocate.
5) Devise new options with the best features of existing ones - Again classic problem solving technique, synthesize new options by combing the best parts of old ones.

While these steps don't solve the decision making dilemma they will help. I think most important of all is to acknowledge that this problem exists, preferably within the group making the decision, so that you know the pitfalls while you are making the choice.

Book Notes - The Adventures of Johnny Bunko

The Adventures of Johnny Bunko by Daniel Pink [2008]

Summary:

1) There is no plan
There are two types of decision; instrumental and fundamental. You make a decision for instrumental reasons if you are prepared to put up with the present because you think it will lead somewhere. You make a decision for fundamental reasons when your not sure where it will lead but it seems interesting. The former rarely work out and the latter may not get you where you thought you wanted to go but normally lead somewhere interesting.

2) Think strengths, not weaknesses
Steer around your weaknesses and focus on your strengths. You will be more motivated, more enthusiastic and more successful if you do what you are good at.
See: Now Discover Your Strengths by Marcus Buckingham

3) Its not about you
Focus your energy outward not inward. Unless you are a starving artist it isn't about what you want, you have a client, a customer or someone else who you need to satisfy so apply your strengths to that.

4) Persistence trumps talent
"The people who achieve the most are often the ones who stick with it when others don't"
You need to show up, practice, practice and practice some more, perfect your art whether that art be painting, music or engineering. Talent only gets you so far, sticking with it and persisting make you successful.

5) Make excellent mistakes
If you aren't making mistakes you aren't trying hard enough. Make mistakes for the right reasons, pushing the boundaries, trying something new, trying to make a difference. If it does all blow up then you need to learn from those mistakes so you don't make the same mistake again. Try to: "Make a mistake from which the benefits of what you've learned exceed the costs of the screwup."

6) Leave an imprint
Try to make a difference, leave things better than they were and be proud of what you do.


Quotes:
"Is this mind-numbingly repetitive? or repetitive mind-numbing?"

Thought of the Day - Online To Do List Roundup

A while back i blogged about my love of To Do Lists and at the time i was enamoured with Ta-da Lists by 37 Signals. While it is beautifully simple and totally fulfils their vision of; "competing with a Post-It note", i started to yearn for something with more control and flexibility. So over the last couple of months i have been moving between various webapps for capturing To Do's. I don't think i have yet found the ideal webapp (and it might not exist) but i thought i would share my experience with each of the sites so hopefully other people can find the perfect To Do List for them.

Ta-da Lists
Despite my quest to find the perfect mix of features, i still use this on a fairly regular basis, its great for short ad hoc lists and capturing things to be done quickly. I even sometimes transfer To Do's from other sites into this for the satisfaction of ticking them. Superb for short ad hoc lists, not so good for more complicated projects.
Pro's: Beautifully simple, replaces Post It notes, quick and intuitive to use, satisfying animation when tasks are complete.
Con's: Can't arrange your high level lists, no support for rearranging tasks between lists, not hierarchical, does not support; tagging, reminders, due dates, searching.

Remember The Milk
So from Ta-da Lists i briefly moved on to Remember The Milk after reading a great article on how to use RTM with Getting Things Done. It has support for tagging, reminders, multiple categories of lists and even setting locations with google maps. I think in principle it could be great but i find there are some interfaces niggles that annoy me.
Pro's: Very clean looking interface, works offline with google gears, support for; tagging, reminders, due dates, prioritisation and reordering of tasks, physical locations for tasks.
Con's: Can't reorder your high level lists, not hierarchical, interface doesn't quite work for me (rollovers don't stick), clicking anywhere on a task marks it as complete, slightly silly name.

Treedolist
I had a few annoyances with the user interface of RTM and it didn't offer what i really wanted; a hierarchical task list. I worked in project management for a bit so i like the idea of having subtasks that all contribute to a high level task and i hadn't found that in any of the other webapps. While it is possible to do this in Ta-da and RTM it is only to one level i.e. you have a list composed of tasks, but you can't have subtasks within each task. A google search for "hierarchical to do list" lead me Treedolist which is specifically designed to be hierarchical (like a tree).
Pro's: Hierarchical, intelligent search bar, support for; notes, links, due dates, virtual tagging (if combined with search), changing font sizes.
Con's: Visually it is rather ugly, the interface is quite clunky (old fashioned and unintuitive), you can't reorder tasks other than to the top of the list or to become subtasks, there are some inconsistencies with keyboard shortcuts and actions (sometimes they work sometimes they don't).

Backpack
I had looked at Backpack a while back but i dismissed it as some sorta weird replacement for a company intranet, but after reading Getting Real (great book - notes to follow) it seemed like it might do what i wanted too. Overall there are a raft of features that i have no need for (newsroom, writeboard, journal etc) but the Pages (and if i paid for it, the Calendar too) are excellent. The Pages in particular are really flexible, not only can you have multiple lists on each page, you can split them with dividers, add notes sections and even writeboards. Alas you are limited to 5 pages on the free account which is workable but not ideal.
Pro's: Great interface, easy to move tasks between pages/lists, best visual layout method i've seen (lists, dividers, notes, writeboards etc), the same satisfying animation as TaDa Lists when you complete a task.
Con's: Can't reorder pages (only alphabetically), very limited number of pages on free account, no support for; due dates, task level tagging, assigning notes/links to individual tasks.

Todoist
I literally just stumbled on this tool while writing this post during random googling for links and it seems to be just what i'm looking for. If it works out i will do a longer review of it later, but here are some initial observations.
Pro's: Great interface, hierarchical tasks AND projects, ability to reorder tasks and projects, due dates, multiple projects, easy to move tasks within lists and between projects, prioritisation/reordering of projects.
Con's: Slightly strange query system (it might search?), the page is too wide for my 7" EEE, i haven't used it in anger yet.

Some other resources:
Top 10 Web To Do Lists
LifeHacker Poll Of Top 10 Web To Do Lists
LifeHacker To Do List Tips
Information on the 'Getting Things Done' System

I should start a new trend; Blogging As A Problem Solving Tool, by researching and writing about your problem you may find a solution to it. Alas i have been here before, i think all of the above To Do Lists have seemed like the answer to my prayers at one stage or another and after extended use i have found little annoying niggles with them. So hopefully Todoist will work as well as it seems to, but time will tell.

Thought of the Day - Heat

I have come to the conclusion that must have been an Inuit in a past life. I love the cold too much and hate the heat. Anything over 20C and i start to get uncomfortable and i would much rather be too cold than too hot. It is currently 28.8C in my flat and it is uncomfortable just sitting still and yet i know people who's idea of bliss is temperatures like this and hotter. You would think coming from a cold and wet area (Scotland) that i would be looking for heat, infact i would rather live somewhere even colder.

Alas what with global warming, i suspect there are few places that would be consistently cold enough for my tastes ... short of Antarctica.

Thought of the Day - Traffic Management Idea

Last week i was sitting waiting in a traffic jam caused by road works and it occurred to me that traffic management is not run in the most efficient way.

If you consider the bottleneck in the process to be the physical bottleneck in the road and the number of vehicles passing as throughput, then it is clear that the bottleneck is grossly underutilised. As the traffic is running in opposite directions, it is clear that the bottleneck can never be fully exploited as you must wait for the last car in one direction before you can move in the opposite direction. However i think there are still significant improvements that could be made.

Firstly as soon as the last car clears the obstruction in one direction the next car should be moving in the opposite direction. Secondly the speed of the cars should be maximized past the obstruction to increase throughput. Finally the time taken for the cars to move off when the light goes green should be minimised.


So what might my traffic management system look like? I would set the lights back from the obstruction by the same length as the obstruction and have the lights change in the reverse direction based on when the last car leaves in the forward direction. This would allow the cars moving in the reverse direction to move off and get up to speed before the obstruction maximising throughput and minimising wasted time. This eliminates the lag in the system for the cars to move off, it also maximises speed through the obstruction meaning the bottleneck is maximally exploited.

There are 3 issues i can see with this system:
The first is if you get a boy racer at the start of the second set of traffic who screams past the lights and then has to jam on the brakes to avoid the oncoming traffic. This would disrupt the traffic behind and impair the throughput.
The second is if you had a very slow vehicle (crane, lorry or little old lady) they would act as a further bottleneck that would reduce the throughput. Unfortunately almost every traffic management system would retain this problem and by giving the vehicle time to accelerate before the obstruction the problem is minimised.
The final problem is that you cannot always see the full length of the obstruction, in this instance if there was a very slow vehicle passing the obstruction the two traffic flows could meet in the middle and come to a stalemate causing chaos. Unfortunately it is not possible to have good visibility on all roadworks so this may limit the locations where this system could be applied. It would also be possible to have an 'emergency stop' sign just prior to the obstruction to prevent this from happening if all of the traffic had not cleared the obstruction.

All of the above issues could be somewhat mitigated through public eduction either via signs or media sources and completely removed if you introduced two convoy vehicles to pace and control the traffic. While the latter option would greatly increase the cost of traffic management it could be used in high profile or high volume situations where throughput was critical.


While i'm sure every motorist would love spending less time in traffic jams and technically they are the end customer. In reality they don't control the cheque books and the cost of the additional equipment might discourage companies from using it. After all the because the motorists aren't paying, best case is that the company gets less complaints. But as with the Heroes Vs Planners debate they are unlikely to get positive feedback, there will still be a delay and the motorist won't know how bad the delay could have been if the system was not used.

Thought of the Day - Injinji Socks

I love my Injinji socks, sure they may have worked out being the most expensive socks ever, after shipping and import duty (don't ask how much they cost me per pair) but damn they are good.

Not only do they work perfectly with my Five Fingers but they are also really comfortable with my other shoes too. My feet definitely feel cooler in them (great in the summer but might not be ideal in the winter) and my circulation seems better (my feet used to get numb if my laces were too tight) so all in all a good investment.

Now my only worry is how to get more, 5 pairs is fine in my current circumstances but i will need more if i go on holiday or things change. I just have to hope they get a UK supplier soon ... or go on holiday somewhere i can buy them.

30 Day Trial - Minimalism Of Posessions - Day 11 - The End

Alas it would appear my first 30-Day Trial has failed miserably.

While i did make a post saying timing would never be perfect it has been the opposite of that so far. I think i need to postpone the trial, failure is not a bad thing as long as you learn from it. In this case i have learned not to start a trial while feeling a bit down and with a wedding to go to within the first week.

I will come back to it when i have suitable motivation, this might be internal or external, but it is definitely still something i want to do.

Thought of the Day - Economics Books

I was at the airport last Friday and i noticed in the business section there were a glut of new economics books which i would suggest are probably a result of the success of Freakonomics. Whether these are new books written because of Freakonomics or whether they are old and have just been made more popular by the success of Freakonomics i'm not sure.

Within these books there seemed to be 3 distinct categories:
1 – Economics can predict the future well – I did have an example however i can't remember the title or author, just that the cover was orange.
2 – Economics can explain the past (in an interesting way) – Freakonomics by Stephen J Dubner or The Economic Naturalist by Robert H Frank
3 – Economics can't predict anything well – Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

To be honest i am rather cynical about the first group, they argue that if you have a good enough model and enough computing power you can predict anything. I would argue that there is far to much randomness to come up with anything better than a guess. The only situation where these models are likely to be accurate are when they are self-fulfilling prophecies; i.e. the models predict a recession, the economists preach a recession, so sure enough there is a recession when there might not have been one otherwise.

For the second group, just about anyone can explain things retroactively, but i will admit that economists do have some interesting explanations.

The third group on the other hand have a lot of valid points, no matter how good the model is you can never be certain. We live in a Quantum not Newtonian world, everything in life is probabilities.

Thought of the Day - Mismatch Problems

Anyone who has felt like they had to jump through pointless hoops at an assessment centre for a job (i would imagine just about everyone these days), can now rest assured that they are infact a complete waste of time. At least according to best selling author Malcolm Gladwell.

In the video of a presentation he made, he argues that most assessments used to determine peoples suitability for jobs are fundamentally flawed. That the entry to careers ranging from ice hockey player to lawyer, are based on tests that have no bearing on actual ability to perform the duties of a job. Moreover he argues that they only thing that indicates if someone will perform well at a job is if they actually do the job.

I suppose the question is how can you tell if someone can do a job without incurring large costs in terms of time or money?

The mismatch problem is only a concern to you and me if people believe that tests and interview questions are doing anything more than weeding out the blatantly unsuitable candidates. And more to the point, accept that the candidates that do well at the tests may be useless at the job.

Idea From: http://www.newyorker.com/online/video/conference/2008/gladwell

Thought of the Day - Vibram Five Fingers at 2 Months

Well it has been 2 months since i started wearing my Vibram Five Fingers and as mentioned in my previous posts both the theory and practice of wearing them has proved sound. So i thought i would do a bit of a roundup of observations so far:

1) They are really really comfortable.
The biggest leap of faith for most people is understanding that padding is not comfort. Almost everyone i talk to about them asks if it is sore walking on tarmac and concrete because they are hard, or rough pointy stones.
I will tackle hard surfaces first because they are what i walk on 90% of the time. Once you modify your walking style (which happens naturally) you land more softly on your feet and therefore they hurt much less than in padded shoes. Even standing on concrete all day (when i am delivering training) doesn't bother me anymore. With trainers or shoes my feet would get sore after a couple of hours, now i barely notice it at all. Pointy stones are a different matter, i grant you i don't have a huge amount of experience at the moment, but from what i have there are two things to keep in mind. Pointy stones are uncomfortable, but it is only discomfort and it does not linger. Also because there is less padding between your feet and the ground you have more of a tactile sense of it and are therefore more careful where you put your feet.
I would recommend Vibram Five Fingers or Vivo Barefoot shoes unreservedly to anyone who experiences discomfort in their feet.

2) Be prepared for questions.
You would think that having five separated toes (just like your feet) wouldn't cause much of a stir. But everyone is so used to traditional shoes that people are genuinely surprised when they realise you are wearing shoes and they have separate toes. The inital shock (and occasional laughter) is quickly followed by a barrage of questions from; what is the deal with those shoes? to why are you wearing them? to do you wear them inside regular shoes? to what happens if you walk on broken glass? Personally having put a lot of thought into it i really don't mind answering questions but if you are shy or bothered by people being strangely interested in your feet, these shoes may not be for you.
The black Classics i have are a blessing and a curse; the blessing is that they are less obvious, in peripheral vision they are just a black shoe, however when people do notice them they look like gorilla feet ;-)

3) Socks
After a period of time you can see a realisation dawning on the persons face and they ask the final question; "hey wait a minute, don't you have to have special socks for those?". The answer is yes you do, mine are from a company called Injinji. I suspect i spent more on 5 pairs of these socks than i have on socks in my previous 26 years. They are expensive to start with, i then had to pay the same price again for shipping 5 pairs from the states and the same price again in import duty. But they are essential, firstly because without socks the Classics look like ladies pumps, second they add a bit of warmth, third they are great with other shoes too and finally (see the next point) they prevent blisters. My biggest concern with the socks is that they already seem to be wearing after around a month of light daily use and at the price i paid that is not a good sign.

4) Blisters
The only problem i have had so far with the shoes was some blisters at the front of my foot when walking downhill without socks. It is a bit strange and may be because my Classics are a little on the large side but unfortunately the blisters were really painful and in an awkward position i have a habit of standing on.

5) Workwear

In my current job i can wear the Five Fingers most of the time (occasionally i need to wear steel toed shoes), however in an office that is a bit more formal they might not be suitable. So if i moved jobs i guess i would need to look at something a bit more normal but still close to barefoot like Terra Plana Mercury or Vivo Barefoot Aqua Sport.

6) The Future
So what does the future hold for me and my Five Fingers? Firstly i suspect i will need to buy some Flow's for the winter, the Classic and KSO versions have no insulation at all and i can imagine them being very cold if wet. I'm not 100% sure the neoprene wet-suit effect is ideal in terms of your feet being damp all day but at least they should be warm.

I also want to try them out offroad some more, maybe some gentle walks on paths to start with, moving up to more rugged terrain and possibly even paintballing.

Finally i really want to start jogging in them and they do have the effect of making me want to jog, but i need to lose some more weight so that i don't destroy my joints.

Props to www.fivefingers.co.uk who have supplied both my Classics and KSO's, they have great service and kept me up-to-date with how things were progressing.

No props to www.injinji.com as their general inquiry e-mail address rejected my question as the mail box was full and when i resent it to a more specific address no-one bothered to get back to me or even acknowledge the mail.

Thought of the Day - Timing

Well the timing for my first 30-day trial sucks, the first 4 days i have been too tired, bored and apathetic to do anything. For the next 4 days i am up in Scotland for my cousins wedding so other than maybe a bit of planning i'm not likely to get anything done.

Most people will agree there is never a perfect time to start something and rarely a good time, so you might as well just get on with it. I suspect when i get back from Scotland i will have to get my butt in gear and start actually doing something.

Thought of the Day - Apathy

I am so tired, bored and apathetic at the moment that i can barely even be bothered to type. Looking back i think i often used to feel this way and the fact that it seems strange could be seen as a good thing or a bad thing. At the moment it seems like a bad thing, i need some way to break out of it, to get back to how i was. Unfortunately i don't know how so i guess i need to figure it out.